January 2025 showed very strong growth in Canada’s spot freight market, with a noticeable increase in load volumes alongside a small decline in truck availability. Both month-over-month and year-over-year metrics reveal upward movement in load postings, signalling strong demand in the Canadian freight market to begin 2025.
Load and Equipment Trends
Cross-Border Load Postings
Cross-border freight saw an uptick at the start of 2025, accounting for a more-than-usual 72 percent of posted loads on Loadlink’s spot market. Notably:
· Outbound Loads (Canada to U.S.): Increased 41 percent year-over-year and 12 percent month-over-month, highlighting strong demand for Canadian exports.
· Inbound Loads (U.S. to Canada): Rose 4 percent year-over-year, with a significant 88 percent jump month-over-month from December 2024.
While load volumes are rising, truck availability for cross-border shipments has tightened:
· Inbound Truck Postings: Dropped by 23 percent year-over-year and 20 percent month-over-month.
· Outbound Truck Postings: Fell by 34 percent year-over-year and 15 percent month-over-month.
Intra-Canada Load Postings
Domestic freight also continued a steadier pace of growth:
· Load Postings: Increased by 8 percent month-over-month and 4 percent year-over-year.
· Truck Postings: Rose by 5 percent month-over-month, but dropped 31 percent year-over-year, pointing to reduced truck availability within Canada. This highlights a carrier-favoured market for the month of January, aligning with a steady trend which has continued since the beginning of Q4 in 2024.
Equipment Trends
The most common equipment types posted in January were Dry Vans at 57 percent, Reefers at 28 percent, Flatbeds at 13 percent and other equipment types making up remaining 2 percent of postings, down from its typical 4 percent average.
Truck-to-Load Ratio
The truck-to-load ratio, a critical indicator of market capacity, continued its rapid tightening in each month since October of last year:
· 1.64 trucks per load, down 27 percent from December’s 2.24, and 37 percent lower than January 2024.
With only 1.64 available trucks per load posted on Loadlink in January, current spot market dynamics will favour carriers as brokers may struggle to source capacity due to rising freight volumes amidst falling truck availability.
Why Are Load Volumes Increasing?
Several factors are driving the increase in load volumes. Key among them is the anticipation of potential tariffs and the resulting shift in supply chain behaviour:
· Seasonal Continuation: Since 2015, load volumes in January have always exceeded the December prior. Strong end-of-year consumer demands usually continue into the new year and cross-border activity takes a larger share of overall activity on the spot market during this time.
· Economic Uncertainty: The broader economic climate, influenced by the transition of governmental power across the border alongside tariff negotiations may have prompted businesses to secure inventory early, contributing to the higher-than-usual freight volumes.
· Pre-Tariff Stockpiling: Many businesses are accelerating their shipments to avoid future cost hikes associated with tariffs. The significant month-over-month increases in cross-border loads indicating that both US and Canadian businesses and consumers are stockpiling goods ahead of possible tariff implementations.
Conclusion
The January 2025 Freight Index reveals a mix of typical winter demand and businesses bracing for economic changes, particularly potential tariffs. The increase in shipping loads, especially across the border, indicates Canadian and American companies are getting ready for any future complications. However, fewer available trucks point to possible supply chain impacts, which could worsen if shipping demand stays higher than truck capacity.
Looking Ahead: Trade and Tariff Developments
Economic policies, particularly regarding trade agreements and tariff changes, will continue to shape freight volumes in the coming months. Industry stakeholders should remain alert to these developments, as they could drive further fluctuations in load demand and equipment availability.
About Loadlink Technologies
Loadlink Technologies is Canada’s leading freight matching platform. By connecting brokers and carriers, Loadlink helps businesses move freight efficiently and cost-effectively. Through innovative solutions, Loadlink supports the logistics sector by simplifying workflows and enhancing the capacity for freight movement across North America through our software.